THE REDEEMS OF FOREX

FOREX AS WE ALL KNOW IS AN AVENUE WHERE ACTIVITIES ARE GOING ON

IN A DAILY BASE AND YOU NEED TO BE INFORMED WITH THE BEST

INFORMATIONS AVELIABLE FOR YOU TO ACHIEVE YOUR OPTIMUM GOALS

IN THE TRADE.

THIS INFORMATIONS HERE ARE JUST FOR YOUR GUIDES ONLY.

Fundamental Outlook

€

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4905 level and was capped around the $1.5085 level. The common currency has not traded this low since February. A further decline in crude oil prices for September delivery added to the pair’s downturn. Traders briefly priced in a small bid to the euro after European Central Bank member Liebscher reported there is “no room for complacency” on EMU-15 interest rates and high inflation. In contrast, ECB President Trichet last week provided a pessimistic economic growth forecast for the eurozone. Some traders are beginning to price in the possibility that the ECB’s next rate move will be lower rather than higher, and this is also adding to the euro’s woes. Data released in the eurozone today saw German July wholesale prices up 1.4% m/m and 9.9% y/y while French industrial production fell 0.4% m/m. In U.S. news, traders await June trade balance data followed by July retail sales data on Wednesday. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.5175 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥109.55 level and was capped around the ¥110.40 level. The pair barely established a new multi-month high dating to 2 January. Economy minister Yosano reported the Fukuda government will issue its economic stimulus package details by the end of the month but the amount of the stimulus remains unknown at this point in time. Most traders believe Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% for several months while a growing minority of dealers believe the central bank may be forced to expand monetary policy. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.99% to close at ¥13,430.91. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥106.40 level. The euro weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥163.65 level and was capped around the ¥165.55 level. The British pound and Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥209.70 and ¥101.10 levels, respectively. The Chinese appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8577 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8588. Data released in China today saw the January - July trade surplus print at US$ 123.72 billion with July’s right around US$ 25.28 billion. Also, July PPU was up 10.0% y/y.

₤

The British pound weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9105 level and was capped around the $1.9255 level. Cable reached its lowest level since November 2006 as traders continue to speculate that Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will need to reduce borrowing costs soon. Data released in the U.K. contributed to that view as it was reported that June output prices were up 0.4% m/m and 10.2% y/y, the highest annual rate since at least 1986 but below expectations. Additionally, input prices were off 0.6% m/m and 30.1% y/y. Other data saw the June trade in goods deficit widen to ₤7.7 billion. Cable bids are cited around the $1.8615 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7795 level and was capped around the ₤0.7835 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0870 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0740 level. The pair reached its highest level since February before coming off. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1135 level. The euro and British pound slumped vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6165 and CHF 2.0670 levels, respectively.

DAYS OUTLOOK

Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range )

EUR/ USD 1.4998 1.5083, 1.4903
USD/ JPY 109.99 110.38, 109.54
GBP/ USD 1.9185 1.9254, 1.9107
USD/ CHF 1.0800 1.0872, 1.0741
AUD/ USD 0.8889 0.8952, 0.8831
USD/CAD 1.0657 1.0681, 1.0610
NZD/USD 0.7019 0.7082, 0.6980
EUR/ JPY 164.98 165.56, 163.63
EUR/ GBP 0.7819 0.7837, 0.7797
EUR/ CHF 1.6200 1.6217, 1.6166
GBP/ JPY 210.96 211.52, 209.69
CHF/ JPY 101.82 102.16, 101.08

SCHEDULE 2

Thursday, 11 September 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

0000 NZ August PMI (48.8)

0100 Australia September consumer inflation expectations (4.9%)

0130 Australia August unemployment rate (4.3%)

0130 Australia August employment, change (10,900)

0645 France Q2 non-farm payrolls

0800 Eurozone European Central Bank monthly report

0945 Eurozone European Commission economic growth forecasts

1230 US July trade balance (-US$ 56.8 billion)

1230 US August import price index (1.7% m/m)

1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims

1230 US Continuing jobless claims

1230 Canada July international merchandise trade (C$ 5.8 billion)

1230 Canada July new housing price index (0.1% m/m)

2245 NZ July retail sales (0.9% m/m)

2245 NZ July retail sales, ex-autos (0.0% m/m)

2350 Japan Q2 GDP (-0.6% q/q)

2350 Japan Q2 GDP, annualized (-2.4%)

2350 Japan Q2 GDP, deflator

Friday, 12 September 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

0430 Japan July industrial production

0430 Japan July capacity utilization (-1.7% m/m)

0630 France August Bank of France business sentiment (92)

0645 France August consumer price index (-0.2% m/m)

0645 France August consumer price index (3.6% y/y)

0645 France August CPI, harmonized (-0.3% m/m)

0645 France August CPI, harmonized (4.0% y/y)

0800 Italy July industrial production (0.1% m/m)

0800 Italy July industrial production (-1.8% y/y)

0900 Eurozone Q2 employment (1.6% y/y)

0900 Eurozone July industrial production (0.0% m/m)

0900 Eurozone July industrial production (-0.5% y/y)

1230 US August retail sales (-0.1%)

1230 US August retail sales, ex-autos (0.4%)

1230 US August PPI (1.2% m/m)

1230 US August PPI (9.8% y/y)

1230 US August PPI, ex-food and energy (0.7% m/m)

1230 US August PPI, ex-food and energy (3.5% y/y)

1230 Canada Q2 capacity utilization (79.8%)

1400 US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment

1400 US July business inventories (0.7%)

DISCLAIMER:

TALK ABOUT FOREX Weekly Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only.

The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used

as investment advice. I assume no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein

contained.

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