FOREX OUTLOOK FOR YOU AT YOUR DOOR STEP

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4165 level and was capped around the $1.4425 level. The common currency reached its lowest level since October 2007 as traders reacted to the U.S. government’s nationalization of U.S. government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two entities that own or guarantee about half of the U.S. ’s US$ 12 trillion in outstanding home mortgage debt. The common currency initially moved sharply higher on the news when Australasian dealing commenced but its intraday gains quickly evaporated. In the move, the U.S. Treasury is potentially investing up to US$ 100 billion in each entity in an attempt to stabilize the U.S. home financing market. Early reaction from U.S. equities markets was positive as traders speculated the announcement could be the catalyst the housing markets need to reverse course and address the ongoing residential credit crunch that began in 2007. San Francisco Fed President Yellen said the U.S. economy faces more mortgage defaults, tighter credit conditions, and more downward activity on employment and business activity. The Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates when the Federal Open Market Committee convenes on 16 September. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Stark acknowledged “most declines” in oil and commodities prices and warned global growth looks to be weaker. Data released in the eurozone today saw Sentix EMU-15 sentiment decline to a new five-year low. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3840 level.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥109.05 level and was supported around the ¥108.15 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 76.4% retracement of the move from ¥103.75 to ¥110.65. The pair failed to sustain many of its intraday gains scored after the U.S. government’s bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were announced. The dollar had rocketed sharply higher on the news on the premise that the short yen carry trade would be back in vogue as traders would sell yen to seek yield in other markets where risk had been mitigated by the U.S. government’s moves. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa “hopes these measures will promote the stability of the global financial system” while finance minister Ibuki sees a “positive impact on the world economy…because the dollar is a key international currency.” Data released in Japan overnight saw August bank lending up 2.0% while August service sector sentiment weakened to a seven-year low. Also, August corporate failures were off 10.0% m/m. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 3.38% to close at ¥12,624.46. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥103.20 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥157.00 figure and was supported around the ¥153.60 level. The British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥195.65 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥95.90 level. The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8433 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8422. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou said the U.S. government’s takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is a “positive” development.
₤

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.7565 level and was capped around the $1.7975 level. Sterling moved higher in Australasian dealing after the U.S. government’s bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were announced but relinquished its intraday gains. Data released in the U.K. today saw August factory gate prices decline at their fastest rate since 1986 with output prices off 0.6% m/m and up 9.7% y/y. These data suggest wholesale price inflation could be moderating in what would be a welcome development for Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members who must reconcile a slowing economy against heightened inflation. Cable bids are cited around the $1.7420 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8020 level and was capped around the ₤0.8080 level.
CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1315 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1130 level. The pair reached its lowest level since 2 January 2008. The pair erased intraday gains after the U.S. nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was announced. Data released in Switzerland today saw August unemployment tick up to 2.4% from 2.3% in July. Swiss National Bank expects the Swiss economy will expand 1.5% to 2.0% in 2008. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1390 level. The euro and British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.5995 and CHF 1.9845 levels, respectively.

Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range )

EUR/ USD 1.4230 1.4427, 1.4165
USD/ JPY 108.62 109.06, 108.13
GBP/ USD 1.7640 1.7973, 1.7564
USD/ CHF 1.1273 1.1316, 1.1128
AUD/ USD 0.8232 0.8352, 0.8142
USD/CAD 1.0612 1.0658, 1.0549
NZD/USD 0.6761 0.6840, 0.6695
EUR/ JPY 154.50 156.99, 153.59
EUR/ GBP 0.8063 0.8078, 0.8020
EUR/ CHF 1.6042 1.6080, 1.6009
GBP/ JPY 191.57 195.63, 190.55
CHF/ JPY 96.27 97.68, 95.89

Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3840 1.4975 106.60 113.30
L2. 1.3320 1.5175 102.45 115.90
L3. 1.2675 1.5380 101.95 117.45

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.7420 1.9135 1.0705 1.1475
L2. 1.6450 1.9525 1.0505 1.1610
L3. 1.5445 1.9835 1.0340 1.1910

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.8095 0.8885 1.0440 1.0940
L2. 0.7910 0.9220 1.0130 1.1205
L3. 0.7685 0.9370 0.9720 1.1870

NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6590 0.7275 153.00 164.35
L2. 0.6440 0.7520 153.30 165.40
L3. 0.5930 0.8105 145.65 167.80

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.7730 0.8310 1.5895 1.6250
L2. 0.7555 0.8570 1.5730 1.6470
L3. 0.7440 0.8790 1.5610 1.6760

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 188.55 200.50 94.15 100.15
L2. 181.15 206.00 91.30 103.30
L3. 173.75 214.65 87.40 105.30

Sunday, 7 - Friday 11 September 2008

THIS BOOK IS FOR SALE, CONTACT US TODAY

All times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A NZ August QV house prices (-2.2% y/y)
2300 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens testifies
2350 Japan August bank lending (2.5% y/y)
2350 Japan August M2+CD money supply (2.1% y/y)

Monday, 8 September 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan August economy watchers survey, current (29.3)
N/A Japan August economy watchers survey, outlook (30.8)
N/A Japan August machine tool orders (-8.9% y/y)
0130 Australia August ANZ job advertisements (-0.3% m/m)
0545 CH August unemployment rate (2.3%)
0830 UK August producer price index, input (-0.6% m/m)
0830 UK August producer price index, input (30.1% y/y)
0830 UK August PPI, output (0.4% m/m)
0830 UK August PPI, output (10.2% y/y)
0830 UK August PPI, core output (0.3% m/m)
0830 UK August PPI, core output (6.7% y/y)
0830 UK July industrial production (-0.2% m/m)
0830 UK July industrial production (-1.6% y/y)
0830 UK July manufacturing production (-0.5% m/m)
0830 UK July manufacturing production (-1.3% y/y)
0830 Eurozone September investor confidence (-15.3)
1230 Canada July building permits (-5.3% m/m)
1900 US July consumer credit (US$ 14.3 billion)
2301 UK August NIESR GDP estimate (0.1%)
2301 UK August BRC retail sales monitor
2301 UK August RICS house price balance (-83.9%)

Tuesday, 9 September 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A NZ August REINZ house sales (-32.6% y/y)
0130 Australia July retail sales (-1.0%)
0130 Australia August NAB business confidence (-9)
0130 Australia August NAB business conditions (-5)
0130 Australia July home loans (-3.7%)
0130 Australia July value of loans (-1.1% m/m)
0130 Australia July investment lending (-0.3%)
0600 Germany July trade balance (€19.7 billion)
0600 Germany July current account (€18.5 billion)
1215 Canada August housing starts (186,500)
1400 US July pending home sales (5.3% m/m)
1400 US July wholesale inventories (1.1%)
2245 NZ Q2 terms of trade index (4.1% q/q)
2350 Japan August domestic corporate goods price index (2.0% m/m)
2350 Japan August domestic corporate goods price index (7.1% y/y)
2350 Japan July trade balance (¥252.1 billion)
2350 Japan July current account (¥493.9 billion)

Wednesday, 10 September 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia September Westpac consumer confidence (9.1%)
0500 Japan July leading index (91.3)
0500 Japan July coincident index (101.6)
0645 France July trade balance (-€5.6 billion)
0645 France July industrial production (-0.4% m/m)
0645 France July industrial production (-1.6% y/y)
0645 France July manufacturing production (-0.8% m/m)
0645 France July manufacturing production (-2.1% y/y)
0830 UK July visible trade balance (-₤7.684 billion)
0900 Italy Q2 GDP
1100 UK MBA mortgage applications
1230 Canada Q2 labour productivity (-0.3% q/q)
2100 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
2245 NZ August food prices (0.6% m/m)
2350 Japan July machine orders (-2.6% m/m)
2350 Japan July machine orders (9.7% y/y)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan Japanese purchases of foreign equities and bonds

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Thursday, 11 September 2008

THIS BOOK IS AVELIABLE FOR SALE, FOR YOUR COPY CONTACT US.SHIPMENT SERVICES AVELIABLE.


All times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0000 NZ August PMI (48.8)
0100 Australia September consumer inflation expectations (4.9%)
0130 Australia August unemployment rate (4.3%)
0130 Australia August employment, change (10,900)
0645 France Q2 non-farm payrolls
0800 Eurozone European Central Bank monthly report
0945 Eurozone European Commission economic growth forecasts
1230 US July trade balance (-US$ 56.8 billion)
1230 US August import price index (1.7% m/m)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1230 Canada July international merchandise trade (C$ 5.8 billion)
1230 Canada July new housing price index (0.1% m/m)
2245 NZ July retail sales (0.9% m/m)
2245 NZ July retail sales, ex-autos (0.0% m/m)
2350 Japan Q2 GDP (-0.6% q/q)
2350 Japan Q2 GDP, annualized (-2.4%)
2350 Japan Q2 GDP, deflator

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Friday, 12 September 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0430 Japan July industrial production
0430 Japan July capacity utilization (-1.7% m/m)
0630 France August Bank of France business sentiment (92)
0645 France August consumer price index (-0.2% m/m)
0645 France August consumer price index (3.6% y/y)
0645 France August CPI, harmonized (-0.3% m/m)
0645 France August CPI, harmonized (4.0% y/y)
0800 Italy July industrial production (0.1% m/m)
0800 Italy July industrial production (-1.8% y/y)
0900 Eurozone Q2 employment (1.6% y/y)
0900 Eurozone July industrial production (0.0% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July industrial production (-0.5% y/y)
1230 US August retail sales (-0.1%)
1230 US August retail sales, ex-autos (0.4%)
1230 US August PPI (1.2% m/m)
1230 US August PPI (9.8% y/y)
1230 US August PPI, ex-food and energy (0.7% m/m)
1230 US August PPI, ex-food and energy (3.5% y/y)
1230 Canada Q2 capacity utilization (79.8%)
1400 US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment
1400 US July business inventories (0.7%)